Results tagged “GOP” from IABlog
Seeing Red? Bleeding Blue? Maybe you just feel a like little Abby, and are tired of Bronco Obama and Mitt Romeneney. Fret not, because after Tuesday night, Americans will find respite from these words: “… and I approve this message.” But until the airwaves are relinquished back to the likes of Nike and McDonalds, we bring you this IAB cheat sheet to get you through the night and make you sound like the next coming of Charlie Cook at the water cooler. If you are looking to bone up, and become a bona fide Tech Policy Wonk, you may eat your veggies by reading Part 2 of this election blog series.
The House of Representatives, 435 congressmen and women, proportionally represent the 50 states (fun fact: five delegates represent DC, the Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands; a resident commissioner represents Puerto Rico). Representatives serve 2-year terms, and the entire House is up for election every even-numbered year.
The Senate, otherwise known as the Upper Chamber, is comprised of 50 senators - two from each state. Senators serve six-year terms, and one-third of the Senate body is up for election every even-numbered year. This year, 21 democratic-held seats, 10 republican-held seats, and 2 independent-held seats are up for election. Of these 33 seats, 10 members retired, and 1 lost their primary, leaving 11 open seats without an incumbent running. *60 votes are needed in the Senate to proceed on legislation, and currently, Senate Independents caucus with the Democrats.
Road to the White House - 270
Like it or not, to win the presidency, a candidate must win the Electoral College. The electoral college consists of 538 electors, a majority of which—270—is needed to win. Each state sends the same number of electors as the state’s congressional delegation. With an electorate increasingly 50/50 split down party lines, the elusive independent voter has enormous power. Where independent voters are concentrated, that state is identified as a battleground, or swing state. This year’s presidential is too close for the pundits to call, and in order for either campaign to win, they must do two things: turn out their base at the voting polls, and win as many swing states as possible. This year, 7 states may very well decide the presidency; and, depending on the scenario, Ohio may be the big get, but ironically, small states Iowa and New Hampshire may have the final say. Watch for every news network to bring out the giant, touch-screen maps, to start breaking down 7-state fuzzy math.
7:00 PM EST / 4:00 PM PST
The Commonwealth Factor - Polls officially close in Virginia, one of several targeted battleground states, and could indicate the direction of the Presidential Election. Historically, Virginia swings red, but the President took the state in 2008. While the demographic landscape continues to trend blue, the state tops all others in defense spending, and proposed Pentagon cuts may move the state into the Romney column.
Buyer Beware… do not be fooled by early vote totals in Virginia. Northern Virginia, which trends Democratic, will report earlier than rural portions of the state, which are traditionally Republican; late reporting could reveal a Romney Virginia victory. Also, be on the lookout for two tight Senate races. Former Democratic Governor Tim Kaine is in the fight of his life against former Republican Senator and Governor George Allen in the seat vacated by Democrat Jim Webb. In Indiana, a surprising turn for Democratic candidate Joe Donnelly against Republican Richard Mourdock. “Top of the Ballot” rules may not apply, as Romney may take Virginia and very likely Indiana, while Kaine and Donnelly pull out razor thin victories.
Battleground Florida also closes. The night starts to get exciting. Not since 1960 has anyone won the presidency without two of the big three: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Other states closing at 7:00 PM - Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Georgia
7:30 PM EST / 4:30 PM PST
O’ Ohio - While polls officially close in battleground Ohio at 7:30 PM, if history has taught us anything, do not anticipate a final count until late into the evening. If Ohio is called early for Obama, this does not bode well for Romney: a Republican has never won the Presidency without winning Ohio.
Obama has the state organizational advantage and Ohio unemployment numbers are in his favor, but Romney can still pull off a historic first pointing to an advantage in Florida and New Hampshire.
Other states closing at 7:30 PM - West Virginia and North Carolina
8:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM PST
Battleground America - Things get cooking in the fight for electoral votes. A win in Pennsylvania could seal the deal for Obama, while a Romney victory ensures the fight goes on through the night. New Hampshire will prove crucial for Romney, and the numbers are pointing in his direction. Several tight Senate races close, including industry champions Democrat Claire McCaskill against Todd Akin in the ‘show me’ state Missouri, and Democrat Chris Murphy against WWE Proprietor Linda McMahon in Connecticut. Another tight and bitter race, moderate Republican incumbent Scott Brown defends his Senate seat against democratic darling and Harvard Prof Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts.
Other states closing at 8:00 PM - Alabama, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oklahoma, DC, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, Texas and Tennessee.
9:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM PST
Rocky Mountain High - Colorado, formerly a Republican stronghold, swung Blue in ‘08 and has trended Democratic in recent weeks’ polling. Site of the 2008 Democratic Convention, the state’s demographics have remained relatively unchanged, but expect high voter turnout from the 18-35 set for a ballot measure to legalize small amounts of marijuana.
Bellweather tolls — While the PX90 Pro Veep candidate Ryan may be Wisconsin’s favorite son, who wins the state’s 10 electoral votes may depend on the outcome of the Senate race between former republican Governor Tommy Thompson and democratic representative Tammy Baldwin. Polls show a dead heat, and a tumultuous two years at the polls prove the Badger state is unpredictable.
Other states closing at 9:00 PM - Arizona, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, and Wyoming.
10:00 PM EST / 7:00 PM PST
Double Down - Nevada and Iowa will continue to keep the pundits talking. Dubbed a must-win for Obama, three electoral votes from the state caucus that propelled Obama into 2008, Iowa, may be the difference again in 2012. Polls show the President leading, but turnout will be the deciding factor. Keep an eye on tight races from Senate republican incumbent Dean Heller and Democratic challenger Shelley Berkley, and former IA First Lady Christie Vilsack as she takes on long time House incumbent Steve King.
Lovin’ it — Always a tight race as the lone Democrat in Utah, Representative Jim Matheson may have finally met his match against Saratoga Springs Mayor, and 2012 Republican Convention celeb, Mia Love.
Other states closing at 10:00 PM - Idaho and Montana.
11:00 PM EST / 8:00 PM PST
Pacific Factor - The West Coast often misses out on the fun as pollsters favor calling races early on the East Coast, but watch out this year as every electoral vote matters. Washington finds itself in another tight Governor’s race between former democratic Congressman Jay Inslee and Lt. Governor Rob McKenna. Hawaii is on the radar as well with an open Senate seat battle between former republican governor Linda Lingle and Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, though polls now show Hirono pulling away with a size able lead.
Other states closing at 11:00 PM - California and Oregon
12:00 AM EST / 9:00 PM PST
On the Red Eye - It goes without saying the republican stronghold in Alaska is likely to give its votes to Romney. But, be forewarned, by the time Alaska closes, if it is still as tight as some predict we may still not know who the next President will be.
Shake ups and predictions — As of Monday, it looks like Democrats will keep the Senate, and Republicans the House. Nevertheless, a few shake ups are important to note for the industry. In particular, the House Energy and Commerce Committee, important to the Interactive industry will see a minimum five new members, and the Senate Commerce Committee is likely to see some changes on the Republican side, particularly with Senior members Kay Bailey Hutchison and Olympia Snowe’s retirements.
Want to know more? Hunker down with a six-pack, your favorite news network, and your iPad, and check out these websites (but make sure to vote first!):
Real Clear Politics: http://realclearpolitics.com
FOX News - 2012 Elections: http://foxnews.com/politics/elections/index.html
POLITICO - 2012 Live: http://politico.com/2012-election
Rasmussen - 2012: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/election_2012
Gallup - Election 2012: http://gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
Bloomberg - Elections: http://bloomberg.com/politics/elections
ABC News - Election Central: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS
Associated Press (AP) - Politics: http://news.myway.com/index/id/politics%7Cap.html
CBS News - Politics: http://cbsnews.com/politics
CNN - Election Center: http://cnn.com/ELECTION/2012
National Journal - Election 2012: http://nationaljournal.com/2012-election
New York Times - Politics: http://www.nytimes.com/pages/politics/index.html
NBC News - Election Central: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/ns/politics
Washington Post - Politics: http://washingtonpost.com/politics
Refuting the ‘Social Media Hangover’ at Political Conventions
Please excuse this IABer’s arrogance when she says: the experts got it wrong.
After Tampa and Charlotte, the reports came flooding in “social media revolution failed,” “Parties still need physical convention,” and “will social media ever live up to its promise?”
But if you know what I mean when I say #eastwooding, read no further, you probably already get everything I am about to highlight.
For some reason, just like novice mobile marketers, the pundits looked to social media to replace the political norms, and missed the true Holy Grail. Just as a successful cross platform marketing campaign reaches the consumer as they move throughout their day, in different contexts utilizing both old and new, social media supplements the convention and campaign platform, it is not there to replace it. Breaking down the walls did not simply mean to host a virtual convention, rather, it’s a tool to expand audience and break down access barriers.
Let’s be honest, while baby boomers and beyond are still happy to find a couch during prime time TV, up and coming generations are highly mobile (and I don’t mean by device), they are cord cutters, and they consume a lot of information and entertainment through multiple platforms and services, at the time convenient for them.
Social media is our Where Brother Art Thou’s tin can and soapbox. It’s retail politicking. How in a modern national campaign do you recreate the glad handing, baby kissing, and storytelling necessary for intimate, voter engagement? Accessibility and communication.
Kal Penn’s call for #sexyface wasn’t just a funny gimmick; it created an opportunity for engagement. Voters like to feel as though they are a part of the process and in on the secret. It took less than an hour for #sexyface to trend on Twitter. While an unintended consequence, @InvisibleObama had tens of thousands of followers in the first hour, 40,000 by the next morning.
And this raises a separate question that has yet to truly unfold: measuring social media’s impact. Some argue in order for social media to be successful, it must be organic. On this point, the two campaigns seem to be diverging, and we will be presented with two case studies by year’s end. Last week, the Romney campaign was the first political campaign to purchase a paid promotion on Twitter. Consider, the President clocks in over 19.6 million followers to the Governor’s 1.1 million.
Campaign strategies aside, the beauty of social media at the conventions this year was its seamless integration - it was universally present, yet invisible - like any great technology should be. From delegates swiping badges to update their Facebook timeline, Eventbrite check-ins, to the hottest ticket in town literally: lattes in the Google Media Lounge, to Convention real-time apps, and Tweet-ups. The experts failed to realize social media at the conventions wasn’t a replacement, but an enhancement.
The 2008 Presidential and 2010 Midterms were just the beginning. We are only beginning to see the tipping point, and there will be mistakes, flaws, and downright failures as campaigns navigate the best way to put these tools to use. I am often pointed to the Veep App as evidence social media and technology platforms don’t work for political. The much-vaunted Veep App would be the first place for voters to find news on the Governor’s announcement for a VP candidate. Unfortunately for the App, and the campaign, that news broke before the App could. And it is true; campaigns must have controlled messaging, and esoterically will remain unchanged for the near future. But don’t shoot the App, campaign leaks are tech-agnostic.
And we’re just scratching the surface. Be sure to join us this year at the IAB MIXX Conference & Expo as some of the smartest minds in media and political discuss the “Digital Election” and examine how the Internet will decide the Presidency this year. To find out more, please visit http://www.iab.net/mixx/agenda.
About the Author
Sarah Hudgins is Director, Public Policy, IAB. Follow her @SarahAHudgins.
Get out your buttons and your boaters… IAB is headed to the 2012 National Political Conventions. This year, Tampa has the privilege of hosting the Grand Old Party August 27 - 30, meanwhile the Queen City, Charlotte, NC will host the Democratic Party September 3 - 6.
While placards, straw boater hats, and political buttons remain delegate wardrobe de rigueur as much today as when we “Liked Ike,” this isn’t your grandma’s political convention. Like buttons have a whole new meaning Ike couldn’t begin to comprehend, and the conventions will no longer know the physical limitations of the past as attendance goes digital with Google+, Facebook, Twitter, and a host of new apps and services that enable social media hang outs, groups, and tweetups.
“Have Twitter, will travel?” Don’t fret, two years in the making, the Host cities, national political committees, and the networks all anticipated the importance of going mobile at the conventions and have been working tirelessly to build out the regions’ communications networks to ensure you don’t miss a minute due to lag time or poor connectivity. Earlier this month, the Democratic Party released its mobile app that will allow users to watch the convention through live stream, navigate the city with friends, share photos, and keep a digital scrapbook. The Republican Party also just released its mobile app a few days ago leading up to kickoff.
And with all this digital connectivity, comes opportunity. A large, captive audience of politically enthusiastic consumers with their eyeballs glued to smartphones and tablets; as POLITICO reported recently, Tampa and Charlotte will see unprecedented levels of mobile advertising by outside groups, issue advocacy organizations, and local retailers and restaurants.
Even more important than the digital political explosion we will witness in two shorts weeks, will be what the candidates and their campaign surrogates and keynote speakers have to say about their visions for the future of an economy dependent on innovation. A National Political Convention is about formally voting a candidate to be the party’s nominee for President - but in contemporary history, it is even more about setting the Party Platform, the principles that will define how the Party’s candidate will govern if elected.
Vital to our industry, and the broader Internet economy will be the elevation and recognition of our issues to the National Conventions’ platforms. How the future Administration intends to engage with Congress and global regulators on Internet policy like governance (ITU), privacy (at home and abroad), and infrastructure (broadband/wifi) is critical to the future health our industry and the broader marketplace to come.
Stay tuned for updates from Tampa and Charlotte…
About the Author
Sarah Hudgins is Director, Public Policy, IAB. Follow her @SarahAHudgins.